MLB Board — Futures

Saturday, August 1, 2026 Baseball-Reference sim × sportsbook futures

Open positions

Cash at risk

$226

Potential profit

+$58.90

Portfolio EV · model now

Open Positions 2 held

Model win % (BR sim, daily) Break-even at odds taken Market re-price (pasted)

Position	Odds	Stake · Risk	Edge @ Entry	Model Now	Pot. · EV	Drift since entry
World Series WinnerMilwaukee Brewers Placed Jul 23 · Bonus: win pays profit only, $0 at risk	+950 BONUS	$20 · $0 risk	19.0% v 9.5% +9.5 pp	17.0%−2.0	$190 EV +$32.30	10 snaps
AL Central WinnerChicago White Sox Placed Jul 19 · Bonus: win pays profit only, $0 at risk	+200 BONUS	$18 · $0 risk	50.4% v 33.3% +17.1 pp	73.9%+23.5	$36 EV +$26.60	14 snaps

Market Watch reserved

Reserved — a model-vs-market scan of unheld futures (division · pennant · World Series · make-playoffs) lands here when a DK futures paste workflow ships. Until then this section stays quiet.

Desk Notes

MODEL — Baseball-Reference 2026 playoff-odds simulation. Pure performance-to-date; refreshed daily and snapshotted by the pipeline each morning run.

BLIND SPOT — the sim does not price the July 31 trade deadline. Edges on fringe teams (likely sellers) are partly deadline risk the market sees and the model can't.

SETTLEMENT — futures settle at season's end and move to Season Results as a separate season-long block, excluded from daily ROI.

SNAPSHOT — last model snapshot Aug 1. Market re-prices are manual pastes, plotted when present.

Vetoed candidates

Phillies to miss playoffs +650 Top raw EV on the Jul 19 futures board — vetoed on Inviolable Rule 4: no straight bets against Philadelphia teams. The Phillies are never faded, full stop.