Season: May 5 – Jul 31, 202676 betting days · 589 graded playsFigures via the canonical P/L engine16 bets pending
Standings & Records
EVERY GRADED TICKET · TRACKER THROUGH JULY 31
Yesterday's Report Card
+$8.94
Guidance
what the edge promised
−$2.06
Actual
6–7 on 13 bets
−$11.00
Variance
actual minus guidance
MISS
Guidance is ∑ stake × Gate Edge (de-vig) — the same de-vigged basis the
discipline gate prices, never the raw simulation edge. July 31 — FINAL, all 13 settled.
Model expected 7.3 wins from the day's 13 sim-priced bets (13 total) — landed 6 wins. Typical day-to-day range ±1.7 (approximate — assumes independent legs; correlated same-game bets and small samples widen it in practice).
Every Bet
Play
Cat.
Odds
Stake
Model P
Edge
Res.
P/L
Verdict
CIN ML
Sides · PIT@CIN
Sides
+130
$10.00
57.0%
+12.1pp
W
+$13.00
Softened
Willson Contreras — HR 1+
HR Props · BOS@LAD
HR Props
+379
$10.00
25.4%
+5.0pp
L
−$10.00
WSH ML
Sides · WSH@ATL
Sides
+106
$5.00
56.6%
+8.3pp
L
−$5.00
Survives
SEA ML
Sides · MIN@SEA
Sides
-166
$10.00
68.7%
+6.5pp
L
−$10.00
Survives
CWS ML
Sides · CWS@TB
Sides
+122
$4.28
47.8%
+5.1pp
W
+$5.22
Softened
PIT/CIN O8
Totals · PIT@CIN
Totals
-105
$5.00
64.7%
+15.7pp
W
+$4.76
Softened
WSH/ATL O9
Totals · WSH@ATL
Totals
-114
$10.00
65.1%
+14.1pp
L
−$10.00
Survives
MIA/NYM U8.5
Totals · MIA@NYM
Totals
-112
$6.99
57.6%
+6.5pp
W
+$6.24
Survives
ARI/CLE O8.5
Totals · ARI@CLE
Totals
-115
$4.28
56.1%
+5.1pp
L
−$4.28
Survives
Nathaniel Lowe — Runs 1+
Batter Props · PIT@CIN
Batter Props
+165
$5.00
48.2%
+8.2pp
L
−$5.00
Softened
Mitch Bratt — Strikeouts U3.5
Pitcher Props · ARI@CLE
Pitcher Props
+120
$10.00
58.0%
+9.9pp
W
+$12.00
Survives
Hunter Brown — Outs U17.5
Pitcher Props · TEX@HOU
Pitcher Props
+110
$10.00
57.0%
+9.4pp
W
+$11.00
Survives
Dylan Cease — Strikeouts O7.5
Pitcher Props · STL@TOR
Pitcher Props
-130
$10.00
65.0%
+7.4pp
L
−$10.00
Survives
TOTAL
$100.55
6–7
−$2.06
Game lines: beat the close on 2 of 4 decided lines, 4 pushes.
Variance Ledger
Variance Ledger tracked from Jun 11 — earlier days are intentionally blank (Gate Edge de-vig wasn't yet captured at decision time). 46 covered days so far.
n=1 dayThe desk withholds a verdict — one day's variance is not a pattern. This line speaks only
once a slice clears the same n≥15 sample-size floor as every other module on this page.
Season to Date
254–313–22
Record
44.8% of decisive bets
+$261.86
Net Profit
+52.4 units
+6.8%
ROI
$3,866.16 wagered
+$51.03
Promo Lift
handicapping alone: +$210.83
Cumulative Profit
The solid line is the account; the dashed line is handicapping without promos. The gap between them is $51.03 of boost and No Sweat value.
Actual, cumulativeHandicapping only
High-water mark +$296.93 on Jul 28. Worst day: Jul 4 went 1–9 for −$45.07. Deepest slide from any peak: −$82.25, bottoming Jul 7. The account has never been more than $10 below zero.
Daily Results
Bonus credit this period: NSB refunds $135.00 · Promo credit $78.00 — tracked separately from P/L above, never bankroll cash. NSB refund promo credit mark any day that had one.
Up day — 35, avg +$23.40Down day — 41, avg −$13.59
Category Standings
Category
G
W–L
PCT
Wagered
Net
ROI
Parlays
102
28–68
.292
$514.04
+$184.18
+35.8%
Pitcher Props
117
61–55
.526
$870.98
+$97.90
+11.2%
Sides
127
66–58
.532
$887.89
+$75.54
+8.5%
Totals
132
64–63
.504
$904.24
+$26.05
+2.9%
Batter Props
70
30–36
.455
$424.01
−$18.61
-4.4%
HR Props
entry-gated since v1.45 — game-log rate required
41
5–33
.132
$265.00
−$103.20
-38.9%
TOTAL
589
254–313
.448
$3,866.16
+$261.86
+6.8%
Records
Best Day
+$118.31
July 8 — 7–4 on 12 bets
Worst Day
−$45.07
July 4 — 1–9 on 10 bets
Biggest Single Win
+$52.40
MacKenzie Gore Hits Allowed O4.5 + Davis Martin Hits Allowed O5.5 + BOS ML (3-leg SGPx) (Parlay) · LAA@TEX / BOS@CWS, July 8
Longest Winning Streak
8 bets
consecutive wins · 6 straight green days, May 6–May 17
Green / Red Days
35 / 41
avg green +$23.40 · avg red −$13.59
Largest Single Loss
−$10.00
Moniak HR · TEX@COL, May 19
Calendar
−$20++$20+pale = no graded plays
Current Form THRU JUL 31
Yesterday6–7, −$2.06
Jul 302–4, +$2.35
Bets pending16 ($122)
Handicapping profit+$210.83
Promo lift+$51.03
— pitcher props$15.30
— sides$12.01
— totals$8.63
— batter props$7.57
Profit split81% picks / 19% promos
ALL FIGURES FROM MLB_TRACKER.XLSX VIA THE CANONICAL P/L ENGINE (BET_PL) · NO SWEAT LOSSES COUNT −STAKE; REFUNDS CARRIED AS BONUS CREDIT ·
$5 UNITS · HALF-KELLY · GENERATED 2026-08-01 14:36 ET