2026-05-05 – 2026-07-31567 decisive tickets · wins & losses onlyTeam figures: ON and IN-GAME basis
Splits
EVERY ANGLE OF EVERY GRADED TICKET · PICK A TEAM, A MARKET, A WINDOW
The Custom Cut
Choose any combination. Anything under n=15 prints its record but withholds a verdict
— small samples get a stamp, not a conclusion.
—
Record
—
Net
—
ROI
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Tickets
The League, As We Bet It
Net profit across every ticket touching each club's games. In-game is the total-basis
view (a total or a parlay leg counts toward both clubs); on counts only tickets actually bet ON that
team. Click a tile to load it in the Custom Cut (uses the in-game code either way).
−$40++$40+
Market Sheets
One sheet per market, fund-report style. The confidence interval is the honest version of the
hit rate; the deepest slide is the worst peak-to-trough run within the market.
Sidesn=124
+8.7%
ROI · +$75.54 on $866
Record66–58 (0.532)
Hit rate, 95% CI44–62%
Median odds+106
Deepest slide−$53.55
BEST SF ML +$15.44
WORST ARI ML −$10.00
Totalsn=127
+3.0%
ROI · +$26.05 on $874
Record64–63 (0.504)
Hit rate, 95% CI42–59%
Median odds-107
Deepest slide−$49.14
BEST Under (Total U8.5) +$15.30
WORST U 7 −$10.00
HR Propsn=38
-43.0%
ROI · −$103.20 on $240
Record5–33 (0.132)
Hit rate, 95% CI6–27%
Median odds+510
Deepest slide−$146.25
BEST Olson HR +$42.00
WORST Moniak HR −$10.00
Batter Propsn=66
-4.7%
ROI · −$18.61 on $397
Record30–36 (0.455)
Hit rate, 95% CI34–57%
Median odds+130
Deepest slide−$74.88
BEST Luis Garcia (WAS) — H+R+RBI 3+ +$15.50
WORST Pete Alonso — H+R+RBI Over 2.5 (25% boost) 2.5 (Prop) −$10.00
Pitcher Propsn=116
+11.4%
ROI · +$97.90 on $861
Record61–55 (0.526)
Hit rate, 95% CI44–61%
Median odds+105
Deepest slide−$45.00
BEST Taj Bradley — Strikeouts O5.5 +$18.30
WORST Cam Schlittler O6.5K −$10.00
Parlaysn=96
+33.1%
ROI · +$162.65 on $491
Record28–68 (0.292)
Hit rate, 95% CI21–39%
Median odds+422.5
Deepest slide−$63.45
BEST MacKenzie Gore Hits Allowed O4.5 + Davis Martin Hits Allowed O5.5 + BOS ML (3-leg SGPx) (Parlay) +$52.40
Totals by side, Batter/Pitcher Props by market. Every row keeps its record and
delta visible no matter how thin -- fainter ink means a wider 95% interval, never a blanked-out
verdict. Delta is this sub-cell's hit rate vs. its full parent category's hit rate,
including this bucket. A row marked PROVISIONAL sits exactly at the
n=15 floor.
Category
Sub-market
Record
n
95% CI
Δ vs. category
Totals
Over
38–43
n=81
36–58%
-3.5pp
Totals
Under
26–20
n=46
42–70%
+6.1pp
Batter Props
HITS
11–7
n=18
39–80%
+15.7pp
Batter Props
TB
8–8
n=16
28–72%
+4.5pp
Batter Props
HRR
6–6
n=12
25–75%
+4.5pp
Batter Props
RUNS
4–8
n=12
14–61%
-12.1pp
Batter Props
RBI
1–4
n=5
4–62%
-25.5pp
Batter Props
HR
0–3
n=3
0–56%
-45.5pp
Pitcher Props
K
34–27
n=61
43–67%
+3.2pp
Pitcher Props
H
14–17
n=31
29–62%
-7.4pp
Pitcher Props
OUTS
11–5
n=16
44–86%
+16.2pp
Pitcher Props
ER
2–2
n=4
15–85%
-2.6pp
Pitcher Props
BB
0–3
n=3
0–56%
-52.6pp
20 tickets ($95.75) carry no recoverable game.
ALL FIGURES FROM MLB_TRACKER.XLSX VIA THE CANONICAL P/L ENGINE · DECISIVE TICKETS ONLY (VOIDS EXCLUDED) ·
WILSON 95% INTERVALS · n<15 PRINTS NO VERDICT
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